Svensk arbetslöshet är hög – kan en starkare konjunktur hjälpa?

Hire Me Concept

I Sverige är 375 000 personer arbetslösa, och det innebär att 7,2 procent av arbetskraften söker jobb men inte har jobb. Det är en hög arbetslöshet, och regeringen försöker få ned den. Målet är till och med att Sverige ska EU:s lägsta arbetslöshet 2020. Det här kallas den faktiska arbetslösheten. Den är uppdelad i det man kallar långsiktig arbetslöshet (eller naturlig arbetslöshet) och konjunkturell arbetslöshet. Det är alltså den andra delen i den faktiska arbetslösheten som skulle kunna påverkas av om vi får en starkare tillväxt i ekonomin – det är den som påverkas av en starkare konjunktur.

Men hur hög är då den långsiktiga, naturliga arbetslösheten som ibland även kallas jämviktsarbetslöshet (kärt barn har många namn …). Skolboken säger så här: Jämviktsarbetslöshet = klassisk arbetslöshet + friktionsarbetslöshet

2016 Growth forecast concept

Den klassiska arbetslösheten uppträder när löneförhandlingar mellan arbetstagare och arbetsgivare når en för hög reallön. Alla får då inte jobb, och några blir (klassiskt) arbetslösa. Men det är också vanligt att det tar tid att matcha dem som söker arbete med de lediga platser som finns. Då blir en del (friktions)arbetslösa. Konjunkturinstitutet beräknar att jämviktsarbetslösheten har stigit de senaste åren, från 6,6 procent 2008-2010 till 6,9 procent idag. En orsak är att matchningen mellan dem som söker arbete och dem som behöver arbetskraft blivit sämre. Om Konjunkturinstitutet har rätt är det inte mycket kvar från dagens 7,2 procent till 6,9 procent, bara 0,3 procentenheter. Vad innebär det? Jo, att det inte hjälper mycket om hjulen skulle börja rulla snabbare i ekonomin. Istället behövs göras sådant som får arbetsmarknaden att fungera bättre. Det kan handla om att göra det lättare att söka jobb, att få arbetsgivare att våga satsa på ”oprövade” arbetssökande, att lära upp nyanställda på första jobbet, att hitta sätt att få ned kostnaderna för dem som inte har haft jobb tidigare så att arbetsgivarna vågar satsa. För att få ned arbetslösheten till EU:s lägsta behövs en massa reformer som gör det lättare för arbetssökande att få jobb och gör det lättare för arbetsgivare att hitta arbetskraft och anställa. Don’t wait!

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