ECB och (förhoppningsvis) Fed gör jobbet lättare för Riksbanken

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För Riksbanken – inflationen, svenska räntor och kronan – spelar det stor roll vad den Europeiska Centralbanken (ECB) hittar på. Eftersom ECB nu tar det lugnare och inte överraskade marknaden med en massa nya åtgärder talar mycket för att också Riksbanken kan ta det lugnt, d v s ligga kvar med styrräntan och inte ta till nya åtgärder i form av köp av obligationer.

En annan faktor som Riksbanken följer är hur den amerikanska centralbanken, Fed, gör nu i december. En räntehöjning efter sju år av nollränta kommer närmare. Tillväxten är hygglig, och arbetsmarknaden förbättras. Det är nog till och med så att finansmarknaden tycker det vore ett styrketecken om USA börjar höja sin styrränta för då signaleras att ekonomin går åt rätt håll.

Riksbanken ska fatta beslut om den svenska penningpolitiken, men Riksbanken är allt annat än självständig i sitt beslut utan måste ta hänsyn till vad andra stora centralbanker gör. Om andra gör mer (t ex sänker styrräntan) så är tanken att det ska försvaga deras valutor, och om svenska kronan stärks blir det svårare för Riksbanken att nå inflationsmålet. Om istället Fed börjar höja sin styrränta stärks dollarn, vilket gör kronan svagare i förhållande till dollarn, och det skulle då hjälpa Riksbanken att nå inflationsmålet.

Det som just nu händer i centralbanksomvärlden är till fördel för Riksbanken som också kan ta det lugnare och kanske kan Riksbankens direktion nu istället börja ägna sig åt julbestyr…

 

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