Inte bra om regeringen överger överskottsmålet

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Svensk ekonomi går bra, men statsfinanserna blir alltmer ansträngda. Flyktinginvandring, sjukförsäkring och assistentersättning ökar de offentliga utgifterna. Regeringen vill överge den s k krona-för-krona principen, dvs att nya reformer ska vara finansierade. Det innebär i praktiken att överskottsmålet överges.

Samtidigt blir det allt svårare för regeringen att klara utgiftstaket när utgifterna ökar. Det handlar om 2016 och 2017. Därför tidigarelägger regeringen utgifter till 2015, men det kan bli svårt att inte överskrida taket i alla fall eftersom marginalerna är små.

Det spelar roll hur finanspolitiken sköts. Att överge överskottsmålet gör det svårare för regeringen att klara nästa lågkonjunktur. När utgifterna stiger kraftigt kan det vara ännu viktigare att finansiera de reformer man kan planera. Budgetdisciplinen är i fara, och om finansmarknaden så småningom tappar förtroende ökar våra finansieringskostnader.

Utgiftstaket kan endera höjas eller så försöker man klara taket genom att tidigare- och senarelägga utgifter samt spara där det går. Det finns sannolikt förståelse för att taket kan behöva höjas just nu, men samtidigt kan det vara bra att försöka undvika detta i det längsta i och med att utgiftstaket nu är det enda som skapar disciplin i regeringskansliet då överskottsmålet inte längre gäller.

 

4 458 reaktioner till “Inte bra om regeringen överger överskottsmålet”

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