Svensk ekonomi ångar på – även nästa år

 

Ånglok

Prognosmakarna tecknar en ljus bild av svensk ekonomi. Vi är på väg in i en högkonjunktur skriver exempelvis Konjunkturinstitutet. Nästa år präglas av ett fortsatt lågt ränteläge och låg inflation, fallande arbetslöshet och stigande sysselsättning, och även en mer gynnsam internationell konjunktur som stärker näringslivet och den svenska exporten.

Detta gör också att den inhemska efterfrågan stiger snabbt. Hushållen konsumerar mer när inkomsterna stiger och ränteläget är lågt. Investeringarna stiger både i bostadssektorn och i det övriga näringslivet inklusive industrin.

Svensk ekonomi kommer att ånga på. Nästa år får vi känning av högkonjunktur, men utan ett alltför snabbt pristryck som gör att penningpolitiken måste stramas åt kraftigt. Riksbanken kan gradvis börja höja styrräntan, och sannolikt sker det under 2017.

Då är det knepigare med finanspolitiken. Den borde stramas åt nu så att vi har något att ta av när nästa lågkonjunktur kommer. Men istället kommer reformer inte vara finansierade och regeringen kommer att behöva låna till flyktinginvandring. Även sjuk- och assistentersättningar höjer utgifterna.

Det närmaste året ser ljust ut, men utmaningarna utvecklas på sikt när nu nyanlända invandrare så småningom ska in på arbetsmarknaden. Om de inte anställs, utan får olika typer av bidrag, går vi miste om skatteintäkter samtidigt som utgifterna förblir höga.

Osäkerheten om den längre sikten är stor. Hur stor blir asylinvandringen framöver? Hur utvecklas omvärldskonjunkturen? Hur klarar Sverige att få upp bostadsbyggandet? Fungerar arbetsmarknaden tillräckligt bra för att sysselsätta invandrare som har låg utbildning? Och vad händer när ränteläget stiger – kraschar bostadsmarknaden samtidigt som den höga skuldsättningen får hushållen att hålla hårt i plånböckerna.

I nuläget ljust, men mörka moln tornar upp sig …

 

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  149. 「 生蛇 」( 醫學名稱是 『帶狀疱疹』Shingles ) 是由水痘病毒引起的疾病。水痘癒合後,病毒在神經細胞潛伏多年,日後隨時重新激活後導致的帶狀皮疹,就是「 生蛇 」。因此,凡感染過水痘的人,都有機會「 生蛇 」。病發時,身體某一部位會感到內疼或劇痛,通常是臉或背部及腰部的一側;這時由於病毒從脊髓處沿其中華一條神經擴散到身體以及去到連接的皮膚表面,形成紅疹及小水疱。帶狀疱疹疫苗Zostavax康栢苗 (蛇針)能助減低「 生蛇 」的機會,有效預防: 「 生蛇 」( 帶狀疱疹 ) 成效高達 70% 「 生蛇 」的後遺神經痛:即使紅疹痊癒,神經痛還可以持續數月或數年。年紀越大,持續有後遺 神經痛風險越高 「 生蛇 」引起的急性及長期痛症 不適用人士: 曾對疫苗成分包括明膠( Gelatin ) 及紐奧黴 ( Neomycin ) 有過敏性休克反應的人士 有原發及繼發性免疫系統問題的病患者,或正服用抑鬱免疫系統藥物(如高劑量膽固醇)的病人 患有肺結核,正發病及未經治療人士 孕婦

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  152. 「 生蛇 」( 醫學名稱是 『帶狀疱疹』Shingles ) 是由水痘病毒引起的疾病。水痘癒合後,病毒在神經細胞潛伏多年,日後隨時重新激活後導致的帶狀皮疹,就是「 生蛇 」。因此,凡感染過水痘的人,都有機會「 生蛇 」。病發時,身體某一部位會感到內疼或劇痛,通常是臉或背部及腰部的一側;這時由於病毒從脊髓處沿其中華一條神經擴散到身體以及去到連接的皮膚表面,形成紅疹及小水疱。帶狀疱疹疫苗Zostavax康栢苗 (蛇針)能助減低「 生蛇 」的機會,有效預防: 「 生蛇 」( 帶狀疱疹 ) 成效高達 70% 「 生蛇 」的後遺神經痛:即使紅疹痊癒,神經痛還可以持續數月或數年。年紀越大,持續有後遺 神經痛風險越高 「 生蛇 」引起的急性及長期痛症 不適用人士: 曾對疫苗成分包括明膠( Gelatin ) 及紐奧黴 ( Neomycin ) 有過敏性休克反應的人士 有原發及繼發性免疫系統問題的病患者,或正服用抑鬱免疫系統藥物(如高劑量膽固醇)的病人 患有肺結核,正發病及未經治療人士 孕婦

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