Har Riksbanken sänkt färdigt?

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Idag publicerades protokollet från Riksbankens möte i februari som mynnade ut i att styrräntan sänktes till -0,50 procent. Beslutet fattades av en oenig direktion. Så här resonerade man:

En majoritet av ledamöter ansåg att det var viktigt att sänka styrräntan ytterligare eftersom inflationen hade kommit ut lägre än förväntat, och det fanns risk för en längre period av låg inflation. Då skulle förtroendet för inflationsmålet försvagas. Vidare ansåg denna majoritet av fyra ledamöter, inklusive riksbankschefen, att andra centralbanker gör penningpolitiken mer expansiv och då ansågs det viktigt att vara proaktiv.

En minoritet av ledamöter, de två professorerna i direktionen, ansåg däremot att styrräntan skulle lämnas oförändrad. Den svenska konjunkturen är stark, och resurserna utnyttas allt mer, vilket innebär att inflationen stiger så småningom. Dessutom är många av orsakerna till den låga inflationen inte sådana som Riksbanken kan påverka, såsom omvärldspriser, hyresnivåer som inte regleras av marknaden, mm.

Direktionen diskuterade risker. Majoriteten talade om risken för en svagare internationell konjunktur, och oron för att inflationsmålet inte nås innan konjunkturen vänder ned igen, vilket gör det svårt för en riksbank som då sitter på negativa räntor och som har färre verktyg för att stabilisera konjunkturen. Minoriteten oroade sig för att en räntesänkning nu skulle riskera att göra penningpolitiken mindre verksam, eftersom den lägre räntan inte längre stimulerar hushåll och företag lika effektivt. Det kan till och med vara så att en räntesänkning likt den som gjordes skadar finansmarknadens funktionssätt.

Signalerna är att gränsen börjar bli nådd för hur lågt reporäntan kan sänkas. ”The bottom is nådd…”

 

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