Svensk ekonomi lyfts fram av EU-kommissionen

svenskflagga[1]

Idag kom EU-kommissionen med sin vinterprognos. Europa anses ha hyggliga ekonomiska utsikter, men inte lika goda som Sveriges. Det finns flera anledningar till att svensk ekonomi går bra, och det finns också en del intressanta konsekvenser för den ekonomiska politiken.

Anledningar till att svensk ekonomi går bra är flera: Låga räntor, hyggliga reallöneökningar, starkt bostadsbyggande, en allt bättre efterfrågan från omvärlden samt att efterfrågan både från utlandet och här hemma får sysselsättningen att växa.

Svensk BNP väntas växa med ca 3 procent både i år och nästa år. Det är bara Polen, Lettland och Slovakien som delar vår positiva utveckling med en tillväxt över 3 procent. Visserligen växte svensk ekonomi än snabbare i fjol, men även i år och nästa år ser det ljust ut.

Ett problem för regeringen (och alla andra) är att arbetslösheten ligger kvar strax under 7 procent, på mellan 6,7 och 6,9 procent för att vara mer exakt. Men när hjulen rullar snabbt och vi växer snabbare än den trendmässiga tillväxten med någon procentenhet, ja då kan inte längre finanspolitiken vara expansiv, utan då borde finansministern börja spara i ladorna för sämre tider.

Ett problem för Riksbanken är att inflationen inte kommer upp i 2 procent som är inflationsmålet, varken 2016 eller 2017. Skulle dessutom finanspolitiken bli åtstramande kan det krävas mer penningpolitiska stimulanser för att få upp inflationen, men verktygen som finns är endera inte bra (valutainterventioner) eller inte tillräckligt effektiva (ytterligare räntesänkningar) om man ska ta hänsyn till grannländer och finansmarknader funktionssätt.

Svensk ekonomi går bra, hushållen får mer i plånböckerna, det byggs mer och exporten växer. Sysselsättningen tar sig tillbaka till nivåerna före finanskrisen och arbetslösheten sjunker, men långsamt. Svensk ekonomisk politik går däremot inte så bra, utmaningarna är stora och de som sköter den ekonomiska politiken har fått det allt svårare att navigera.

 

 

 

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