I huvudet på en centralbankschef

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Idag höll Riksbankschefen Stefan Ingves ett tal som många med spänning väntat på. Kanske berodde förväntningarna på titeln: Tid för omprövning – i huvudet på en centralbankschef.

Talet handlade om en rad olika saker, såsom kontanthantering, Riksbankens roll när det gäller bitcoin eller elektroniska pengar, det svenska betalningssystemet mellan banker, Riksbankens roll som stödfunktion i händelse av kris, mm. De viktigaste områdena var ändå Riksbankens ansvar för finansiell stabilitet å ena sidan, och ansvar för prisstabilitet å den andra.

Riksbanken söker ett utökat ansvar för finansiell stabilitet och makrotillsyn, och är således inte riktigt till freds med den uppdelning av ansvar som den förra regeringen gjorde och som innebar att Finansinspektionen fick huvudansvaret.

När det gäller penningpolitiken reste Riksbankschefen fler frågor än gav svar. Borde inflationsmålet ändras? Nja, ett lägre mål kan göra det svårare att för penningpolitiken att motverka lågkonjunkturer, och ett högre mål är något som oftast diskuteras i den internationella debatten.

Min syn: Även om ett högre mål skulle kunna vara önskvärt, är det knappast lätt att få förtroende för ett sådant, om man inte ens kan få förtroende för det mål vi har nu.

Borde vi ändra inflationsmålet från KPI till kanske KPI med fast ränta eller det europeiska måttet, HIKP som betyder Harmoniserat Index för KonsumentPriser? Även här var det å ena sidan, och å den andra, men mellan raderna kan man kanske utläsa att Ingves skulle föredra HIKP som används internationellt och som inte påverkas direkt av förändringar i styrräntan.

Skulle man dessutom ta tillbaka intervallet runt målet, d v s +/- 1 procent, så att inflationen kan variera mellan 1 och 3 procent. Här svarar Ingves något tydligare, och jag håller med honom, det är ändå 2 procent man siktar på. Skulle ett intervall införas är det för att kunna kommunicera osäkerheten bättre, men kanske skulle man kunna åstadkomma detta genom att bli bättre på att kommunicera (mitt tillägg).

Slutligen fanns en diskussion om andra mål ska finnas med, t ex sysselsättningen, och nu var Ingves tydlig. Det är knappast penningpolitiken som kan öka sysselsättningen, utan här behövs struktur- och finanspolitik. Att hitta ett sätt att få till en bra mix mellan finans- och penningpolitik diskuteras visserligen i talet, men tyvärr saknas det djup som en sådan debatt förtjänar.

Många områden fanns med i huvudet på centralbankschefen, och när nästa tal hålls, ser jag fram emot att det finns utrymme att gräva djupare i vart och ett av dem. Då blir det också tydligare vilken typ av omprövning vi egentligen talar om.

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