Lite starkare global konjunktur – men bara på kort sikt

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Även om IMF precis skrivit ned sina globala prognoser kvarstår bilden av en värld som hankar sig fram. Det är en värld som växer med drygt 3 %, har stora outputgap, hygglig sysselsättningstillväxt och en svag produktivitetstillväxt.

Efter att IMF tillverkade sin uppdatering av prognoserna har global utveckling förbättrats. Index som visar överraskningar i data har vänt uppåt, men är fortfarande svagt i USA och i synnerhet i Euroområdet. Men trenden är uppåtriktad överallt utom i Japan. USA:s inköpschefer visar också en starkare bild av industrikonjunkturen, som länge brottats med problem, särskilt orderingången ljusnar. 

Kina, vars BNP-tillväxt också skrivits upp av IMF, till skillnad från i princip alla andra länder, har utvecklats starkare: Investeringsprojekten ökar, fastighetsmarknaden har blivit hetare, inköpscheferna vittnar om stigande aktivitet, och nu senast, starkare exportsiffror. Men även om det ser bättre ut på kort sikt, riskerar ombalanseringen nu ta längre tid och riskerna ökar för en mindre uthållig utveckling på längre sikt. 

Risken för en ny recession i världsekonomin har just nu avtagit, dels utifrån tillväxtländernas svårigheter med den tidigare starka dollarn, fallande råvarupriser, ökande skulder, som fått en boost av att råvarupriserna stigit. Dels utifrån de mer utvecklade ländernas situation. Tillväxten är ungefär 1 procent svagare än under decenniet före finanskrisen, men den är hygglig, och IMF förutser att 2017 blir ett starkare år än 2016. Men det kanske inte blir så. 

Risken är nämligen överhängande att vi har en god tillväxt de närmaste kvartalen men att den globala konjunkturen därefter mattas. USA:s bilhandel som nu viker ned är ett tecken, där tidigare uppdämt konsumtionsbehov avtar. Likaså borde stimulanserna från kreditcykeln i USA avta och en förstärkning av dollarn ligger fortfarande i korten. Kina har också en vikande trend framför sig, efter de närmaste kvartalen. Och övriga tillväxtländer har en tuff period av skuldsanering framför sig. Och det svaga läget i Europa förutses relativt stabilt, tyvärr.

 

 

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