Kinas import krymper – men det gör inte landets betydelse

Kinas import minskade i oktober för 12:e månaden i rad! I oktober var nedgången 19 procent, och i september 20 procent. Det är mer än Kinas ledning önskar.

Hur illa är det och hur ska man tolka det som händer i Kina?

Helt klart är att Kina betyder mycket för världsekonomin och kommer att fortsätta göra det under kommande år, och sannolikt i allt större omfattning. Redan idag har landet mellan en tredjedel och hälften av världens inkomster, handel och efterfrågan på råvaror.

Kina försöker ställa om sin ekonomi från export- och investeringsledd tillväxt till att hushållen får vara tillväxtmotor. Det är inte helt lätt. Samtidigt ska finanssektorn liberaliseras, och det brukar bli skakigt när ekonomier öppnar upp.

För resten av världen kan detta bli kännbart. Dels så efterfrågar inte Kina lika mycket varor och tjänster från omvärlden som tidigare, i alla fall inte på kort sikt. Dels så märks det när förmögna kineser börja skicka ut kapital till andra länder. Den resan är bara i sin början.

Den närmaste tioårsperioden kan bli skakig, och de vägval som Kinas ledning måste göra blir viktiga. Men även andra länder måste spela sina kort väl. Skulle t ex USA kräva att den kinesiska valutan inte får försvagas så blir det svårare för Kina att klara liberaliseringen av finansmarknaden, och alla de andra reformerna som också är på gång …




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