Valutainterventioner rycker allt närmare

 

Valutainterventoner expanderar Riksbankens balansräkning och får upp inflationen om det handlar om att försvaga kronan. När kronan försvagas blir importpriserna högre, och då stiger inflationen.

Riksbanken trycker pengar och köper utländsk valuta. Då försvagas kronan. Det är rätt vanligt att man också inför ett valutagolv för att ge vägledning till valutamarknaden om vilken nivå man tycker är lämplig.

Är det då svårt att försvaga kronan, i likhet med hur det var i början av 1990-talet, då man försökte förstärka kronan. Nej, i det här läget kan ju Riksbanken trycka pengar och köpa än mer utländsk valuta, så det blir inte slut på pengar som tidigare. Däremot blåser Riksbanken då upp sin balansräkning ännu mer.

Valutainterventioner borde ju vara det klockrena svaret på hur Riksbanken ska få upp inflationen och dessutom få upp inflationsförväntningarna i linje med målet, något som gör att Riksbanken återfår förtroendet och förutsägbarheten för olika aktörer, såsom löneförhandlare samt säljare och köpare på produktmarknader, blir bättre. Fördelen är ju också att man inte behöver sänka räntan ännu mer, något som gjort det lättare att låna och spätt på bostadspriserna.

MEN…valutainterventioner är inte förenliga med hur vi bäst behandlar våra konkurrentländer. För när vi försvagar kronan, är det någon annans valuta som blir starkare. Vi förbättrar våra förutsättningar för export, men minskar importviljan, vilket skadar andra länder som också vill exportera. ”Beggar thy neighbour” brukar man säga… det ska mycket till innan Riksbanken väljer denna strategi – t ex att andra länder gör det mera öppet, eller att institutioner som IMF och BIS m fl aktivt förordar det för svensk räkning. Vi är inte där ännu, men uttalanden från Riksbanken visar att vi kommer allt närmare …

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