Ny utvärdering: Riksbanken och regeringen får kritik

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En utvärdering av Riksbankens penningpolitik 2010-2015 kritiserar Riksbankens arbete bland annat med att nå prisstabilitet, göra prognoser, samarbeta, och kommunicera med marknaden. Professor Marvin Goodfriend (USA) och tidigare centralbankschef Mervyn King (UK) fick uppdraget 2014 av Riksdagens finansutskott. De anser att Riksbanken haft en för stor tilltro till prognoser, modeller och reporäntebana, och genom att använda dessa mekaniskt inte använt sitt sunda förnuft.

Utvärderarna kritiserar också regeringen för att inte tillräckligt snabbt fatta beslut om hur arbetet med finansiell stabilitet och makrotillsyn skulle organiseras. Först när Finansinspektionen givits ansvaret började Riksbanken fokusera på inflationsmålet, till skillnad från tidigare då en majoritet i direktionen fokuserat på hushållens skulder. Problemet var att denna majoritet inte tillräckligt väl kunde argumentera för hur en högre ränta skulle kunna minska problemen med hushållens skulder. Samtidigt fanns det mycket – och kanske alltför mycket – utrymme i direktionens protokoll för minoritetens avvikande uppfattning.

När det gäller framtiden vill utvärderarna se att det är Riskdagen som definierar och sätter inflationsmålet. Därmed ger man Riksbanken i praktiken underkänt för hur de har hanterat sin uppgift under senare år. De vill också att det ska vara KPIF (dvs KPI med fast ränta) som ska vara styrande istället för KPI där även bostadsräntorna ingår och där penningpolitiken därmed utförs som en hund som jagar sin egen svans …

När det gäller finansiell stabilitet verkar utvärderarna inte riktigt hamna rätt. Vi har redan ett stabilitetsråd och att rekommendera regeringen att utse en grupp av experter som granskar ansvarsfördelningen först år 2020 verkar lite märkligt. Vi har redan ett flexibelt inflationsmål.

Utvärderarna kunde ha tryckt mer på att Riksbanken måste bli bättre på att kommunicera med den finansiella marknaden, med arbetsmarknadens parter och med allmänheten. Under senare år har man trott att det går att byta ut kommunikationen mot en reporäntebana, men denna bana har få haft tilltro till och då fungerar det inte.

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