Försiktig tillväxt i USA – mindre troligt Fed höjer

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Den amerikanska centralbanken, Fed, har kommit med sin konjunkturmätare, Beige Book. Här konstateras att ekonomin fortsätter att växa försiktigt, att arbetsmarknaden förbättras och att lönetillväxten tilltar.

Men tillväxten är ojämnt fördelad över landet. I vissa regioner har det blivit svårt att få tag på kvalificerad personal, och i andra regioner är det trögare på arbetsmarknaden. Hushållen konsumerar mer, och kreditgivningen tilltar. Men tillverkning- och energisektorerna har det jobbigt. Den starkare dollarn hjälper till, men råvarumarknadernas nedgång samt Kinas avmattning bidrar också.

Det märks också att det är mer nervöst på de finansiella marknaderna och att börsutvecklingen kan smitta av sig på den reala ekonomin.

Hur ska då Fed agera om ca 2 veckor? Det troliga är att man avvaktar med räntehöjningar och låter ekonomin ta mer fart innan man fortsätter att strama åt.

Intressant är att det oftast talas om att ECB har en penningpolitik som inte passar hela EMU-området, men nu diskuteras även i USA att Fed får det svårt att avväga penningpolitiken utifrån landets alla regioners behov. Regioner som pressas av svag energi- och tillverkningsindustri kan behöva mer andrum än regioner där hushållen fått upp farten.

 

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