Riksbanken håller reporäntan oförändrad…

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… men köper statsobligationer för ytterligare 45 miljarder kronor. Hur tänker Riksbanken nu när inflationen stärkts, när vi är på väg mot en högkonjunktur och penningpolitiken redan är expansiv?

För det första är Riksbanken orolig för att uppgången i inflationen inte är uthållig. För det andra finns en oro om att penningpolitiken som den europeiska centralbanken (ECB) bedriver ska leda till en starkare krona om inte Riksbanken agerar, och om kronan blir starkare blir det svårare att nå inflationsmålet på 2 procent.  

Eftersom det är svårt att sänka reporäntan i någon större omfattning, och vi börjar komma till vägs ände, fokuserar istället Riksbanken på att köpa mer statsobligationer. Därmed fortsätter man med detta även under andra halvåret i år, till skillnad från tidigare beslut då köpen skulle upphöra till sommaren. Att få hela 37 procent av stocken av svenska statsobligationer är mycket, och kan innebära risker på sikt.  

Notera att ECB, som på eftermiddagen kom med sitt besked, låter reporäntan vara oförändrad och inte heller ändrar köpen av statsobligationer. Notera också att kronkursen inte reagerat på Riksbankens beslut idag. Utan annonseringen om ytterligare köp kan den ha stärkts något, men svårt att säga om uppgången hade blivit uthållig. Nu måste Riksbanken på det här sättet visa att den är beredd att fortsätta köpa statsobligationer för att hålla kvar kronkursen, och riskerar därför att måla in sig i ett hörn till ingen eller liten nytta (och kanske snarare skada). Var det därför som Stefan Ingves idag talade om att det finns möjlighet att gå upp till 100 procent? Låter oroväckande… 

Snarare hade nog förtroendet för Riksbanken stärkts om den hade avvaktat och följt upp konjunktur- och inflationsutveckling. Lite is i magen hade nog fungerat idag.

 

 

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